The world really is more unpredictable than ever - two ‘chief risk officers’ explain why

The world really is more unpredictable than ever - two ‘chief risk officers’ explain why

by World Economic Forum · View the channel on PSI

Humanities, Social Sciences & Thought Science — General & History GPQDecision theory: generalGPQDRisk assessment
🎙 World Economic Forum 👥 1.1M 📅 October 14, 2026 ⏱ 49 min 👁 10 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-10-14
Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

unpredictabilityrisk signalshuman judgmentsupply chainsgeopolitical fragmentation

Summary

This Radio Davos episode features a live discussion on global risks with Natasha Fields (WTO) and Torben Oeder (Volkswagen), moderated by Robin Pomeroy and Mitali Chatterjee. The conversation centers on why the world is becoming more unpredictable, emphasizing that risks now materialize simultaneously across geopolitical, economic, technological, and environmental domains. The speakers distinguish between known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, noting that traditional predictive models are insufficient. They stress the importance of identifying weak signals, leveraging AI for data scanning while preserving human judgment for interpretation and strategic decisions. The discussion covers concrete examples such as the Middle East conflict, Nepal floods, car industry localization, trade fragmentation, and the WTO’s concerns. Both experts argue for a shift from reactive to proactive risk management, integrating resilience into business strategy. They also explore the differences between private sector and international organization risk practices, and conclude on a note of cautious optimism, seeing opportunity in uncertainty.

154 words

Critical Evaluation

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The value of this discussion lies in its practical insights from senior risk officers at two major organizations. The argumentation is solid, grounded in the WEF’s research and real-world examples. The speakers effectively illustrate concepts like ‘unknown unknowns’ with concrete scenarios (e.g., the 2023 Middle East crisis) and explain how they adapt. The inclusion of opposing perspectives (WTO vs. Volkswagen) enriches the narrative. The reasoning is coherent, though sometimes the conversation jumps between points, but overall the logical flow is strong.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The discussion references the WEF’s Global Risks Report 2026 and the Risk Management Reimagined publication, both of which are credible and publicly available. The speakers’ professional backgrounds lend authority. The title accurately reflects the content, though the phrase ‘more unpredictable than ever’ is a claim repeated but not quantitatively backed; it remains a plausible expert opinion. No discordant sources are mentioned. The conversation is well-structured with clear chapters, and the sources cited in the description are used appropriately.

174 words

Title / Content Match

The title accurately reflects the core theme: the increase in global unpredictability and the perspectives of two chief risk officers on that topic.

Quality & Reliability

8/10

Discussion with senior risk officers from Volkswagen and the WTO, moderated by WEF staff, based on the WEF's Global Risks Report and Risk Management Reimagined report. The content is well-informed, references official reports, and provides practical insights from experienced professionals.

Chapters

Cited Sources

  • Risk Management Reimagined: Outlook to 2035 — Referenced as the report discussed in this episode, offering long-term risk management perspective.
  • The Global Risks Report 2026 — Referenced as the macro-level risk report that highlights key global risks like geoeconomic confrontation and AI anxiety.
  • Radio Davos podcast — The podcast channel where this episode is published.

Concurring Sources

  • Global Risks Report 2026 — The macro-level analysis that aligns with the episode's themes on interconnected risks.

External References

Contribution & Novelties

The episode uniquely brings together chief risk officers from a multilateral organization (WTO) and a global private company (Volkswagen), offering contrasting yet complementary views on risk management. It bridges macro and micro perspectives, emphasizing the simultaneity of risks and the need for adaptive strategies. The discussion on AI’s role in risk detection, balanced with human judgment, is particularly relevant.

Pour aller plus loin :

  • Polycrisis — Concept of multiple, interconnected crises, central to the discussion of simultaneous risks.
  • Unknown unknowns — Popularized by Donald Rumsfeld, this framework is used in risk management to classify uncertainty.
  • Scenario planning — A method mentioned implicitly when discussing how to respond to unknown unknowns.

110 words

Radar Profile

The profile shows a balanced approach, with high scores in information quality and reliability, moderate technical depth, and a strong emphasis on qualitative insights. The quantitative aspect (specific data) is less prominent, reflecting the conversational nature.

Reliability 8/10